April 20, 2020

UT Handicappers Give Texas 60 Percent Odds
of Having Virus Death Toll Peak in Next 7 Days

Governor Issues New Coronavirus Orders

University of Texas COVID-19 Research

By Mike Hailey
Capitol Inside Editor

University of Texas Model Projections
Death Peak Probability Time Spans

STATE Peaked 7 Days 14 Days
U.S. 89% 97% 97%
N. Carolina 13% 46% 81%
Texas 19% 60% 85%
Ohio 23% 63% 88%
California 27% 69% 91%
Pennsylvania 46% 77% 95%
Illinois 46% 87% 97%
Florida 50% 85% 96%
Michigan 52% 93% 99%
Virginia 67% 82% 94%
Georgia 75% 86% 93%
New Jersey 80% 97% 99%
Washington 81% 94% 98%
Louisiana 93% 97% 98%
New York 97% 99% 99%

An elite team of scientists and medical experts at the University of Texas appeared to see a hint of blue in an ominous sky on Monday when it revised its forecast for the projected pinnacle in the coronavirus death toll in the Lone Star State.

The COVID-19 Modeling Consortium at UT predicted that Texas has a 60 percent probability of having the daily tally of virus fatalities here peak by the end of the week.

Researchers at the state's flagship institution of higher learning determined that there's a 19 percent chance that the coronavirus death count has already peaked. The UT team estimates the odds at 85 percent in terms of the possible peak in the number of lives that the virus claims here within the next 14 days.

Texas is one of six states that are ranked among the top 15 in population that have less than even odds of having coronavirus death tolls in the past in the UT-Austin tracking group's current estimations. The Capital City researchers estimate there to be an 89 percent chance at the death count from the novel ailment has peaked nationwide. .

The UT forecast is substantially more optimistic than it had been a day earlier when the coronavirus trackers estimated there to be a probability of only 36 percent for a death count peak in Texas within the next seven days.

But the researchers in Austin have been more cautious in the extended outlook than their counterparts at the University of Washington Health Metrics and Evaluation Institute that determined in a revised forecast late last week that Sunday would be the apex in coronavirus deaths in Texas.

Both of the research virus monitoring squads at UT and UW had overestimated the fatality count in Texas on Saturday when 26 people here died from COVID-19 infections. The team in Austin had projected 31 virus deaths in Texas on Saturday when the HME in Seattle predicted that 34 people would die here.

The UW and UT virus researchers had projected 32 and 34 deaths from the disease in Texas on Sunday. The Texas Department of State Health Services - however- reported today that the virus only claimed 18 lives here on Sunday.

While the HME foresees a steady decline in coronavirus deaths from this point on - a prediction that's contingent on strict social distancing and containment strategies - the UT team that the fatality tally will reach 33 on Wednesday where it will stay for four days before taking an eventual downward turn.

The running global count at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore had 19,513 confirmed coronavirus cases in Texas by mid-afternoon on Monday with a cumulative death toll of 504.


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